000 AXNT20 KNHC 071750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU FEB 07 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N25W 2N35W 2N44W EQUATOR AT 50W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-150 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 17W-25W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 26W-31W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND FROM 2N-5N WEST OF 35W TO THE BRAZILIAN COAST. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SW AFRICA NEAR 6N6W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF HAS BECAME STATIONARY. AS OF 15Z...THIS SYSTEM TRAILS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A BROKEN WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 26N86W. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY INVADE THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAINLY LIGHT NELY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO GIVING MOST OF THE AREA STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A JETSTREAM WITH CORE WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE W ATLC. A 1026 MB SFC HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC ENVELOPING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF WITH SLY RETURN FLOW AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MORE OF THE SAME...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA CONTROLS THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SHALLOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE...MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NEAR CABO GRACIAS A DIOS IN NICARAGUA AND OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO EVIDENT INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AS WELL AS OVER HISPANIOLA. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1030 UTC INDICATED ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AS USUAL JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC KEEPS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A 1026 MB HIGH SITUATED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 2852W DOMINATES THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC. THIS SFC HIGH IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS ACROSS THE N TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS N CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N26W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 24N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION. A JET-STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS OBSERVED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEEN ADVECTED BY THIS JET FROM N SOUTH AMERICA ALL THE WAY NE TO THE AFRICAN COAST CROSSING THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ GR