000
AXNT20 KNHC 071155
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 7 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

6N11W 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W...GOING TO 1S52W INTO NORTHEASTERN 
BRAZIL. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE CELL ALONG THE 
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE IVORY COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN
20W AND 24W...AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 8N EAST OF 60W. UPPER 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
9N44W 14N31W BEYOND 21N18W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THE AREA FROM FAR WEST TEXAS/
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEYOND KANSAS. UPPER 
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO... 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF TEXAS...THROUGH LOUISIANA AND 
BEYOND MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA NORTHEASTWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE 
NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE 
FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W...AND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PRECIPITATION IS
DISSIPATING FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA INTO MEXICO TO THE EAST OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST 
JUST WEST OF TAMPA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN A ROPE-CLOUD 
THAT MARKS THE FRONT BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE TO THE 
SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONIC CENTER...STRETCHING FROM EASTERN HONDURAS 
AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.
HIGH LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING SOME CLOUDS NORTHWARD...
IN THE AREA FROM COLOMBIA TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF 80W IN THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL 
TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS 
THE AREA WEST OF 40W COURTESY OF THE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 32N30W 
TO 19N33W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N28W TO 22N38W. CLOUDS AND MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N 
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. 
   
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