000 AXNT20 KNHC 061745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N25W 2N35W EQUATOR AT 49W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80-100 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS EAST OF 19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR 4N24W...3N27W...AND WITHIN 90 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 31W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOLLOWED BY GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 10 FT. AS OF 15Z...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE MEXICAN COAST JUST SOUTH OF TUXPAN. TAMPICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT THIS MORNING WHILE A SHIP NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BRIEFLY REPORTED WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1235Z SHOWED NLY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF. A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING...THEN WILL WEAKEN FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO EAST BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THU. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE PHOTOS WITH LIGHTING DATA DEPICTING SCATTERED TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A SQUALL LINE IS ANALYZED OVER SE ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 93W/94W. A 1025 MB SFC HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLC ENVELOPING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF WITH SLY RETURN FLOW AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OCEAN. ALOFT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT GIVING MOST OF THE AREA STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NO MAJOR CHANGE HAS EXPERIENCED THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE THE CARIBBEAN SEA 24 HOURS AGO. THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE RIDGE ENVELOPS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMAS. SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA DOMINATES THE REGION WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS AND POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO INCLUDING ALSO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO EVIDENT INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1100 UTC INDICATED ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AS USUAL JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC KEEPS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 MB HIGH SITUATED NEAR 29N58W DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N36W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 26N46W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOW LIES ALONG 36W/37W FROM 22N-29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 26N. FINALLY...THE E ATLC IS DOMINATING BY A 1034 SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. A SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 15W...OVER THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...N OF 17N TO THE E CANARY ISLANDS. A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A JET-STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS OBSERVED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEEN ADVECTED BY THIS JET FROM N SOUTH AMERICA ALL THE WAY NE TO THE AFRICAN COAST. $$ GR