000
AXNT20 KNHC 061153
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
7N12W 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 50W...INTO 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN 
ONE CLUSTER FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 14W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 60W. UPPER 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 12N60W 13N50W 18N40W 22N30W 
BEYOND 26N16W...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.

...DISCUSSION...

WEST OF 60W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM MISSOURI TO 
OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS. THE JET STREAM AROUND THE BASE OF THIS 
TROUGH IS MOVING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO 
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST...ACROSS MEXICO...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 60W. 
THE RIDGE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALONG 75W. SOUTHERLY RETURN 
FLOW WINDS HAVE BEEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS 
OR MORE...NOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COLD 
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CUT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON 
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM FLORIDA TO 
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FROM 06/12Z UNTIL 07/00Z
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1025 MB 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N66W IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN FRESH 
TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BENEATH THE TRADE INVERSION EAST 
OF 70W...NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND WEST OF 80W.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MAINTAINS A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
 
EAST OF 60W...IN THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 28N44W TO 27N47W.
THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 27N47W TO 26N52W 24N56W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 28N35W 25N37W 22N38W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE IS ALONG 23N29W BEYOND 34N19W. A JET STREAM WITH CORE 
WINDS OF 90 KT TO 110 KT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC 
OCEAN DURING THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS.
   
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MT