000 AXNT20 KNHC 060620 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC ...THE ITCZ... 7N12W 5N20W 3N30W 3N40W 3N46W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N52W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE CLUSTER FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 52W. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 12N60W 13N50W 18N40W 22N30W BEYOND 26N20W... MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ...DISCUSSION... WEST OF 60W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. THE JET STREAM AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS MOVING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT JUST MOVED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 60W. THE RIDGE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALONG 75W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS HAVE BEEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR MORE...NOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT IN 24 HOURS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N67W IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BENEATH THE TRADE INVERSION EAST OF 70W...NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W...AND FROM 12N TO 18N WEST OF 81W. A QUIKSCAT PASS YESTERDAY WAS INDICATING 20 KT TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MAINTAINS A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EAST OF 60W...IN THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N40W TO 30N45W TO 27N52W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 35W/37W FROM 17N TO 26N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 22N30W BEYOND 32N23W. A JET STREAM WITH CORE WINDS OF 90 KT TO 110 KT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. $$ MT