000 AXNT20 KNHC 052328 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N30W EQ47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS EAST OF 14W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 37W-40W...AND FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 45W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM A 1026 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 29N70W ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. MODERATE SLY RETURN FLOW PERSISTS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ABOUT ENTER NW GULF TONIGHT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT EARLIER TODAY INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 20-25 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING...WITH STRONG NLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT IN 24 HOURS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT IN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE JET STREAM AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRES N OF AREA DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE TRADE INVERSION...MAINLY FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... AS WELL AS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A QUIKSCAT PASS EARLIER TODAY SHOWED 20 TO 30 KT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC KEEPS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N70W DOMINATES THE WEST CENTRAL ATLC. A FRONT SKIRTS 30N/31N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 35W FROM 20N TO 27N IS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 1031 SFC HIGH OVER PORTUGAL. A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A JET STREAM WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS OBSERVED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEEN ADVECTED BY THIS JET FROM N SOUTH AMERICA TO THE AFRICAN COAST. $$ MUNDELL