000 AXNT20 KNHC 051754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N25W 2N35W EQUATOR AT 46W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS EAST OF 14W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN AROUND 100 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 19W-22W...AND FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 45W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 29N69W EXTENDS A RIDGE WWD ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF REGION. SLY RETURN FLOW HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF TONIGHT. BUOYS AND SHIPS ACROSS THE GULF ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1130Z ALSO CONFIRMED THESE REPORTS. ACCORDING TO THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL...THE FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT IN 24 HOURS. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NARROW CLOUD LINES PARALLEL TO THE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SE U.S. PARTICULARLY BETWEEN EASTERN TEXAS AND ALABAMA. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY STABLE AIRMASS THAT REDUCES THE CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S./NORTHERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE STATE OF COAHUILA. A JET STREAM BRANCH AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS AND POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS. SOME OF THEM ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AFFECTING FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SIMILAR CLOUDINESS IS SEEN INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS PRODUCING BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1200 UTC SHOWED ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC KEEPS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. . THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 MB HIGH SITUATED NEAR 29N69W DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLIPS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N/32N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC. THIS TROUGH...REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW...HAS SLIGHTLY MOVED EWD AND NOW LIES ALONG 34W/35W FROM 20N-27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS IS STILL SHOWING THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATING BY A 1031 SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A JET-STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS OBSERVED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEEN ADVECTED BY THIS JET FROM N SOUTH AMERICA ALL THE WAY NE TO THE AFRICAN COAST. $$ GR