000 AXNT20 KNHC 051201 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...THE ITCZ... 7N12W 6N20W 3N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 23W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W...AND SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...STAYING SOUTHEAST OF 10N60W 13N50W 19N40W 23N30W BEYOND 24N16W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE EVERYWHERE REDUCES THE CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SURFACE WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N72W AND CROSSES FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA/MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. THIS DIGGING TROUGH AMPLIFIES THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. LOW-TOP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTHWARD... AND OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH PATCHY CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EAST OF 70W...FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...IN THE WATERS BETWEEN HAITI JAMAICA AND CUBA...SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...AND SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 80W TOWARD LAND. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALONG A RIDGE FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 31N30W TO 30N44W...MOVING TO A SEPARATE 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N72W...AND THEN TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N52W TO 27N54W TO 20N58W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N40W TO 32N43W. SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N52W BEYOND 32N43W. A WEAKENING CENTRAL-TO-EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N30W TO 26N33W TO 21N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 36W FROM 20N TO 28N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 29W AND 37W. $$ MT