000
AXNT20 KNHC 042350
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N22W 1N40W INTO NE BRAZIL 
NEAR 1S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S TO 
2N BETWEEN 38W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
ALONG 29N. CONSEQUENTLY THE ENTIRE REGION HAS MODERATE TO STRONG 
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE 
GULF IS RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE...BUT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS LINES 
ARE SEEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THESE 
ONSHORE WINDS. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE 
ALOFT FROM THE EPAC ACROSS TEXAS. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. A 
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE NIGHT.
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. IS SUPPORTING THIS FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP 
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO 
PRODUCE SOME POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED 
LIGHT SHOWERS...MORE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE ABC ISLANDS...AND 
NEAR NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SFC 
HIGH SITUATED OVER THE W ATLC AND A LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS
PRODUCING FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG RIDGE ALONG 29N/30N WITH 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 
30N68W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 20N-27N...A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR
26N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A 
JET-STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS OBSERVED OVER 
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEEN ADVECTED 
FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NE TO THE AFRICAN COAST. 
   
$$
MUNDELL