000
AXNT20 KNHC 032327
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2245 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W AND INTO S 
AMERICA NEAR EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-35W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE AXIS AND THE COAST OF BRAZIL WEST OF 
37W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AROUND A 1024 MB SFC HIGH NEAR THE 
GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF REGION. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL 
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA 
STRAIGHTS. ALOFT...A STRONG SWLY JET WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 130 KT 
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE GULF. FAIR WEATHER 
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
A DRY STABLE AIRMASS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH PATCHY CLOUDS AND 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. NEARLY ALL OF THE 
CONVECTION IS SHALLOW IN NATURE CAPPED BY ABUNDANT SUBSIDENCE 
AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 
EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A REMNANT SFC TROUGH ENTERS THE W ATLC 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N79W AND EXTENDS TO THE FLORIDA COAST 
NEAR 29N81W. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. FATHER EAST...A WEAK 
SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 27N38W 23N39W 19N39W. A LARGE AREA OF 
DIFFUSE MOISTURE IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N-28N 
BETWEEN 31W-39W. AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
33N45W. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN IS PRODUCING NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT N OF 13N ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES A NARROW LINE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM 31N57W TO 
27N65W BEING PUSHED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION. A 
TROPICAL JET WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 120 KT IS TRANSPORTING UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 50W.
    

$$
WADDINGTON