000 AXNT20 KNHC 021730 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT FEB 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N10E 5N10W 3N25W 3N37W THEN CURVING S CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W TO 2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 32W-38W ENHANCED BY AN UPPER JET AXIS TO THE N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SE GULF IS FIZZLING FROM S FLORIDA TO 23N88W. THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS ADVECTED IN BEHIND THIS FRONT ON THU AND FRI HAS ALREADY BEEN REPLACED BY A MUCH MILDER/MORE HUMID ONE DUE TO THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING E CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE SE CONUS. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION WITH ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS EVIDENT W OF 91W STEERED BY SLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY W TO SWLY ADVECTING A STREAM OF PACIFIC HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS N MEXICO INTO THE SRN U.S...BUT THE GULF REMAINS IN A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER CUT OFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THAT PAST FEW DAYS HAS OPENED BUT STILL SUPPORTING AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC WATERS SWD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THRU THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 24N68W 18N65W 11N59W. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT E OF 72W...THICKEST OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MOISTURE PATCHES GENERALLY THIN OUT W OF 72W AWAY FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. NEARLY ALL OF THE CLOUDS ARE SHALLOW IN NATURE CAPPED BY ABUNDANT SUBSIDENCE EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER RIDGE THAT REMAINS PARKED ALONG 77W/78W. TRADE WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE AND OUT OF THE NE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SETTLES DUE N OF THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD IS PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N74W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY AND IS DISSIPATING TO S FLORIDA. A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS NOTED IN SHIP AND BUOY OBS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 27N-30N. BOTH OF THESE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ARE WEAK WITH ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS IN THEIR VICINITY. THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW IS STILL SUPPORTING A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENING FROM THE SE CARIB NEAR 11N59W TO 24N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SIMILAR SCENARIO EXISTS ABOUT 1300 NM TO THE ENE WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A BROAD UPPER LOW HAS SOME INFLUENCE ON A SFC TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 19N41W TO 27N32W. INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 31W-38W. THIS SFC TROUGH AND THE ONE FARTHER W IS ENHANCING NE TO E TRADES ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF ABOUT 70W. A JET WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 100 KT OR SO ORIGINATES NEAR 16N50W AND EXTENDS NE TO 27N25W THEN EWD ACROSS INTO AFRICA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE JET AXIS IS PRODUCING AND TRANSPORTING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN AND N OF THE ITCZ. SEE ITCZ SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. $$ CANGIALOSI