000
AXNT20 KNHC 021124
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N30W 3N38W 1S50W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 27W-31W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 
34W-38W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA ALONG 27N80W 21N90W 17N93W.  THE FRONT IS MARKED BY A 
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND IS BEGINNING TO 
DISSIPATE.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE NEAR 
36N85W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT 
WINDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS OVER SE TEXAS MOVING E.  EXPECT...FAIR WEATHER OVER 
THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS DUE TO SURFACE RETURN FLOW.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS DOTTING THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA MOSTLY E OF 73W...MOVING SW.  A SURFACE TROUGH 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 60W/61W 
MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N57W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS E 
OF 70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 70W-90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 
80W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.      

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N75W 
27N80W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1036 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 44N52W.  A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 27N36W 20N39W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 30W-39W.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS ...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N 
W OF 75W SUPPORTING THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 60W-75W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
24N38W.  A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC 
AND W AFRICA FROM 20N40W TO BEYOND 24N15W.  EXPECT THE 
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGHS WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER 
LEVEL LOWS TO DRIFT W AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS.      

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FORMOSA