000
AXNT20 KNHC 020603
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N1W 4N20W 4N30W 5N38W 1N50W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 26W-31W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N 
BETWEEN 36W-40W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
3N-6N BETWEEN 41W-45W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA ALONG 29N80W 24N84W 21N90W.  THE FRONT IS MARKED BY A 
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NO PRECIPITATION.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N91W AND 
IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...SWLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF 
OF MEXICO.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER SE TEXAS 
MOVING E.  EXPECT...FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST 
OF TEXAS DUE TO SURFACE RETURN FLOW.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS DOTTING THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA MOSTLY E OF 73W...MOVING SW.  A SURFACE TROUGH 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 
59W MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N58W.  CYCLONIC 
FLOW IS E OF 70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 70W-90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
THE ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN 
E OF 75W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.      

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N76W 29N80W.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1033 MB HIGH 
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N43W.  A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 27N36W 18N38W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 33W-38W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 75W 
SUPPORTING THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 
60W-75W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
24N38W.  A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC 
AND W AFRICA FROM 20N40W TO BEYOND 24N15W.  EXPECT THE COLD 
FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGHS WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOWS 
TO DRIFT W AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS.      

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FORMOSA