000 AXNT20 KNHC 012345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N2W 1N11W 4N32W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. BROAD AREA OF SW UPPER FLOW IS STREAMING OFF SOUTH AMERICA AND GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 7N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD COVERING THE E US AND MOVING TOWARD THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NE FLORIDA ENTERING THE GULF NEAR TAMPA CONTINUING S TO 25N85W THEN SW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE AREA NW OF THE FRONT IS REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND A 1027 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE AREA. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 21N W OF THE FRONT INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOST OF THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE GULF LATER TONIGHT/SAT MORNING WITH THE REMNANTS REMAINING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... NARROWING UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W ANCHORED BY A UPPER HIGH BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND AN UPPER LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS AS WELL AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THAT AREA. THE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND TO WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E US AND AND GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST FROM SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA INTO THE GULF ACROSS NE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN NARROWING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N72W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 68W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N58W COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 51W-70W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N57W ALONG 17N58W 21N66W TO 26N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 215 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 14N-20N. SMALL UPPER HIGH IS N OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 28N52W COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N FROM 45W-58W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 30N E OF 18W WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM W ALONG 30N34W TO 24N41W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW FROM 19N39W TO 28N37W. THE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ SECTION COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC W OF 50W AND A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 130 KT IS WITHIN 200/300 NM OF LINE FROM 15N50W ALONG 23N28W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 25N15W. $$ WALLACE