000 AXNT20 KNHC 010555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N1W 4N35W 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 90W AND S OF AXIS TO COAST OF S AMERICA W OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... IN THE UPPER LEVELS A CYCLONE OVER MISSOURI TRAILS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SW ALONG 32N93W 22N97W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE... ORIGINATING FROM A WEAKENING ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS...EXTENDS W INTO THE AREA ALONG 25N TO NEAR 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALMOST IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER FEATURE AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 26N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES ALONG 30N90W 22N97W WITH CONVECTION FLARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC NE TO E FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NE OF THE AREA NEAR 19N57W AND IS MOVING W WITH TIME...SO UPPER LEVEL N WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK TO THE NW AND W OVER THE AREA S OF S OF 15N E OF 65W. SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO DRIVE NE WINDS...AND LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS SW ACROSS MOST OF THE SEA. EXCEPT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NW WATERS. ATLC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS BUT SEEMS TO BE LOSING IDENTITY AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL N ATLC BUILDS SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ONE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS NOTED AT 30N50W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 66W. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY BLOCK THE CONTINUED E ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR TUTT LIES TO THE SE OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE. THE TUTT IS FIRST NOTICED IN A SUBTROPICAL UPPER CYCLONE AT 40N20W...AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 31N31W INTO ANOTHER CYCLONE AT 23N41W...AND CONTINUES SW TO ANOTHER CYCLONE AT 18N58W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CYCLONE NEAR 20N54W. THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIES ALONG 31N62W 22N57W 13N55W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE SO DRY THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS TRAPPED WITHIN 240 NM OF 21N54W. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 27N37W TO 20N33W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ENHANCED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. THE UPPER MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE TO NEAR 27N33W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 27W WITH ITS RIDGE CRESTING NW ALONG 10N62W 24N27W 20N5W. THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE NOTED S OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. AT THE LOW LEVELS BRISK NE TO E FLOW AND LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED E OF 50W. $$ NELSON