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AXNT20 KNHC 010000
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2245 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N2W 4N27W 2N37W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN 
AND 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
30 NM OF 4.5N FROM 24W-27W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE 
INLAND AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA 
BETWEEN 38W-47W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD COVERING THE 
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES MOVING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF AT 2100 UTC OVER CENTRAL 
LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY S ALONG 26N94W TO THE COAST OF 
MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE. A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF 
THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
DOTTING THE AREA N OF 25N FROM 87W TO THE FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST 
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT 
WITH RAPID CLEARING OBSERVED W OF THAT TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND 
W LOUISIANA. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 110 KT COVERS THE 
THE GULF NW OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO TAMPA FLORIDA. 
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE GULF FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
WEEKEND. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED 
BY A UPPER HIGH NEAR JAMAICA WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MODERATE/STRONG 
NE TRADE WINDS DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKER WINDS 
IN THE NW PORTION USHERING IN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL 
SHOWERS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN 
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N75W COVERING THE W ATLC. 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC EXTENDING 
THROUGH 32N70W INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 15N53W THROUGH AN 
UPPER LOW NEAR 20N58W TO 27N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION 
EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N55W ALONG 19N55W 26N61W 
TO 31N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 18N-24N. SMALL 
UPPER HIGH IS ALONG N BORDER OF THE AREA NEAR 32N49W COVERING 
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N FROM 45W-55W. BROAD ELONGATED UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF GIBRALTAR ACROSS MADEIRA 
ISLANDS ALONG 28N34W TO 21N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THIS FLOW FROM 19N32W TO 27N35W. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS 
OF 80 TO 130 KT IS WITHIN 200/300 NM OF LINE FROM 15N51W ALONG 
23N23W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 23N16W. 

$$
WALLACE