000 AXNT20 KNHC 311735 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU JAN 31 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N10E 1N10W 4N24W 3N38W CURVING S CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W TO 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-32W AND S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE HOUSTON AREA TO N MEXICO NEAR 25N98W SUPPORTING BY A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. A WARM FRONT RUNS EWD ACROSS THE N GULF FROM S MISSISSIPPI THROUGH N FLORIDA. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A 45 NM SWATH OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. OVERRUNNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT...MOST ORGANIZED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AT THE MOMENT. REMAINDER OF THE AREA S AND E OF THE FRONTS IS EXPERIENCING WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH BRISK SE TO S WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REACHING A POSITION FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN THIS TIME TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND FIZZLE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT PULLS NE. CARIBBEAN SEA... MID TO UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG 76W WHILE SLIGHT TROUGHING LIES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E CARIB INDUCED BY TROUGHS N OF THE REGION. WV IMAGES REVEAL WIDESPREAD DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT REGION-WIDE. THIS SINKING AIR IS SUPPRESSING STREAMS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DRIVEN ACROSS THE SEA. THE THICKEST PATCHES...WHICH CONTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ARE MOVING S TO SW OVER THE E CARIB DRIVEN BY THE MOIST NLY FETCH ON THE W SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH. TRADES ARE FAIRLY BRISK ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIB WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST BETWEEN THE SEMI-PERMANENT LOW PRES TROUGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N71W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE CARIBBEAN MID TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS N OVER THE ATLC WATERS ALONG 76W. PATCHY LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE CAPPED OVER THE BAHAMAS BY A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N W OF 72W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT AND SWLY FLOW ALOFT. DEEP LAYER TROUGHING COVERS A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTED BY A WWD MOVING MID TO UPPER LOW NEAR 22N57W. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND QSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED 1014 MB SFC LOW NEAR 24N57W IS OPENING AND LOSING ITS THERMAL CHARACTERISTICS. AT 12Z...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED N OF THE LOW ALONG 28N59W 32N59W AND A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED S TO 13N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED TO THE E OF THE LOW/TROUGH FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 53W-56W. A LARGER BROADER UPPER LOW IS SPINNING IN THE E ATLC NEAR 29N29W. INSTABILITY NEAR THE UPPER CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 30W-36W. WIDESPREAD SW TO W FLOW ALOFT TO THE S OF THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING AND TRANSPORTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE TROPICS E OF ABOUT 40W. AT THE SFC...BESIDES FOR THE WEAKENING FRONTAL LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE WEAK FRONT IN THE NW CORNER...THE SFC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG 1037 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. A LOW-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 33W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE...HELPING TO INCREASE THE ELY TRADES ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. $$ CANGIALOSI