000 AXNT20 KNHC 302323 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED JAN 30 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N6W 7N17W 4N35W 3N46W 1N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 30W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA S OF 4N W OF 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WHILE THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR TAMPA EXTENDING WSW TO 25N92W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THE PORTION OF THIS FRONT IN THE GULF IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF RETREATING N AS A WARM FRONT MOSTLY W OF 92W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 90W AND W OF 90W N OF 23N. HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE SE US TO THE N GULF COAST. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE N TO A LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS BRINGING YET ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE GULF THU AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON ANCHORED BY A UPPER HIGH NEAR JAMAICA WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DISSIPATING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR MARTINIQUE EXTENDING W JUST N OF THE ABC ISLANDS TO NEAR 13N73W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST WINDS IN THE NW PORTION AND THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE E US COAST OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N78W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH THEN BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N68W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N68W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 18N54W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N58W TO 21N60W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N56W ALONG 22N52W TO MARTINIQUE IN THE WIND WARD ISLANDS WHERE IT DISSIPATES IN THE CARIBBEAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS N OUT OF THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 55W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT INTO THE CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 18N FROM 22W-43W AND CENTERED NEAR 26N28W WITH A WEAK BUT BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N24W TO 28N25W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 18W24W. $$ WALLACE