000
AXNT20 KNHC 301814
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N30W EQ48W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 39W-44W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE FURTHER W FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 44W-50W.    

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO ALONG 30N82W 25N90W 23N98W.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT MOSTLY OVER 
CENTRAL FLORIDA.  A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
NEAR 22N96W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF 
THE CENTER.  BRISK 20-25 KT NELY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  
10-15 KT SLY WINDS ARE OVER THE S GULF AND S FLORIDA S OF THE 
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE W FLANK OF A RIDGE IS OVER THE 
SE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE N 
GULF PRODUCING PREDOMINATELY SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND 
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT.  A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER 
THE SRN STATES JUST N OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A BAND OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS S OF 24N.  EXPECT...THE PRESENT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE 
BACK OVER TO THE N GULF.  A 1008 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER S 
LOUISIANA IN 24 HOURS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO TAMPICO 
MEXICO.  A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO EXTEND E FROM THE LOW TO N 
FLORIDA.  EXPECT CONVECTION WITH THE NEW SYSTEM.      

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN 
FROM MARTINIQUE TO ARUBA ALONG 15N61W 12N70W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO IN 
THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 75W-80W.  MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT TRADES COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 67W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT ...THE FRONT TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED LIGHT TRADES WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N68W.  A WEAK 1016 
MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N54W.  A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS SW TO MARTINIQUE ALONG 23N53W 15N61W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 51W-53W.  AN 
INVERTED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 25N23W 14N20W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 21N-30N 
BETWEEN 20W-25W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 65W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N57W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N25W.  EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO A 
REMNANT TROUGH...AND THEN RETROGRADE BACK W.        

$$
FORMOSA