000 AXNT20 KNHC 301139 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 30 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N25W 3N35W 3N45W EQ51W. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80-100 NM N OF AXIS WEST OF 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 30W-40W...AND BETWEEN 22W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS 09Z...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS IN MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. A 70 NM WIDE BAND OF MAINLY LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS NOTED IN SATELLITE PICTURES AND DOPPLER RADAR. NLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA BUILDS INTO THE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N69W. ALOFT...SWLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC DOMINATES THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE N GULF WATERS AND THE SE US. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AND NE MEXICO THIS EVENING AND RETROGRESS N AS WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 58W. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 30N54W TO GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES THEN CONTINUES SW AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE PHOTOS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BUT ONLY FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVELS CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE INVADING PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC UNDER A PREVAILING NLY WIND FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND JUST E OF JAMAICA. FRAGMENTS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE ALSO SEEN OVER NICARAGUA WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH ALONG 55W. THEN...THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE WWD FOLLOWED BY A SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS N OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC. E OF THE RIDGE...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LIES ACROSS 58W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A NARROWING RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH GUADELOUPE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 23N54W TO 13N554. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM AHEAD THE FRONT N OF 22N. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 17N E OF 40W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N22W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N26W TO 17N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. A SFC TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER FEATURE RUNS FROM 24N23W TO E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N20W. $$ GR