000 AXNT20 KNHC 300558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 30 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N10W 5N30W 3N45W 2N52W. CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR 4N34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 42W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NEW COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. AS OF 03Z...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE DEEP SOUTH AND NE MEXICO. A 50 NM WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE SE OF U.S. AS NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA. OTHERWISE...BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF. NWLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE GULF. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 30-50 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N70W. ALOFT...SWLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC DOMINATES THE GULF. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AND NE MEXICO LATE WED AND RETROGRESS N AS WARM FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 58W. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTER THE ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N54W THEN CONTINUES SW ENTERING THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS WEAKENING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING ONSHORE PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC UNDER A PREVAILING NLY WIND FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. FRAGMENTS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE ALSO SEEN OVER NICARAGUA DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF THE ABOVE FRONT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY LEAVING A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 55W. THEN...THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE WWD FOLLOWED BY A SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS N OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC. E OF THE RIDGE...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LIES ACROSS 58W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A NARROWING RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N54W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25N54W TO BARBADOS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 17N E OF 40W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N22W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N27W TO 17N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. A SFC TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER FEATURE RUNS FROM 27N24W TO E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N20W. $$ GR