000
AXNT20 KNHC 291801
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N26W 5N43W 2N51W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 23W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N 
OF AXIS W OF 47W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY...PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF 
WATERS. 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS SHIFTING FROM FLORIDA INTO 
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS 
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW SLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT 
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF BETWEEN THE 
APPROACHING FRONT AND THE HIGH TO THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH 
OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG OFFSHORE 
FLOW TO NEAR GALE FORCE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE GULF BEHIND 
THE FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NW GULF. THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY 
PROGRESSIVE...AND THE HIGH PRES RAPIDLY E IN RESPONSE TO A 
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
MODERATE TO FRESH SLY FLOW WILL THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONT 
INTO THE GULF BY THU...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 16N74W. 
1021 MB HIGH PRES IS BUILDING TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BEHIND 
THE FRONT. PUERTO RICO RADAR SHOWS MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. STRONG NLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE 
FRONT...PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD 
AND MONA PASSAGES. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 
TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLOMBIAN 
COAST...THROUGH THU IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE 
N. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MAIN FEATURE REMAINS A DEEP LAYERED LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING EWD 
ALONG ROUGHLY 61W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N55W 
TO PUERTO RICO. UPPER DIVERGENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 120 E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER 
PATTERN TO THE EAST. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 45W...IN 
PHASE WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES. FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EVIDENT S OF THE SURFACE HIGH BETWEEN 
35W AND 55W...GENERALLY S OF 18N. FURTHER E...UPPER TROUGH IS 
DIGGING NEAR THE CANARIES...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE 
AFRICAN COAST. CONSEQUENTLY TRADES REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT E OF 35W. 
LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE UPPER TROUGH 
BECOMES CUT OFF WED...LEAVING AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 
26N58W. AS RESULT...THE FRONT BECOMES STALLED AND 
DIFFUSE...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 55W WITH POTENTIAL FOR 
A FEW LINGER SHOWERS NEARBY. THIS LEAVES TRADE WIND FLOW 
EAST OF THE ANTILLES TO AROUND 50W FAIRLY WEAK WED INTO THU. E 
OF 50N...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST DUE TO THE EXTENSION OF 
HIGH PRES FROM THE EASTERN ATLC. 
$$

CHRISTENSEN