000 AXNT20 KNHC 291137 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 29 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 5N20W 4N30W 1N40W 2S50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 80 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 33W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 09Z...A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS FEATURE EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS HIGH ALSO DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 70W...THE BAHAMAS...CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. SLY RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM AFFECTS THE W PORTION OF THE GULF. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE SE COAST OF THE SUNSHINE STATE AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GIVING THE AREA NWLY WIND FLOW. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS NW MEXICO...TEXAS AND THE SE U.S. INTO THE W ATLC. HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATER TODAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH REACHES 16N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE/WESTERN PUERTO RICO THEN CONTINUES SW TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA WHERE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/PUERTO RICO...AND OVER NORTHERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AFFECTING PUERTO RICO TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. A SFC TROUGH... REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUSLY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING MODERATE NE AND E WINDS. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N56W EXTENDING SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT COVERING THE W ATLC AND THE BAHAMAS. LOW LEVEL NELY WINDS ARE ADVECTING PART OF THIS CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE N COAST OF CUBA. A SFC TROUGH...REMNANTS OF FRONTAL SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SE WITHIN 160-18O NM OF THE MAIN FRONT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICS WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 50W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC WITH A CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N20W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE REGION NEAR 31N29W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT GENERATED BY THIS SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE AREA BETWEEN 30W-38W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA AND WEST AFRICA. $$ GR