000 AXNT20 KNHC 282316 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 6N17W 3N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 4N FROM 36W-39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 36W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE IS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE GULF THIS EVENING ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER S GEORGIA WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO/E PACIFIC OVER MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE GULF W OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF AND WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FOUND IN THE GULF. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF TUE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS S INTO THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N FROM 63W-83W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W ACROSS JAMAICA TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W TO E GUATEMALA. THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME VERY DRY STABLE AIR SO NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO 21N. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND CROSS PUERTO RICO LATE TUE. THE REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUSLY BOUNDARY MARKED BY OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N68W THROUGH THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W INTO THE W ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN W OF 57W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N59W EXTENDING S ALONG 25N62W THEN SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 66W-69W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT COVERS THE AREA TO 78W. A WEAKENING FRONT IS JUST TO THE E EXTENDING FROM A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N55W TO NEAR 24N59W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICS WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 50W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 40W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION NEAR 31N35W. A COLD FRONT GENERATED BY THIS SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N37W EXTENDING S ALONG 29N39W THEN WESTWARD ALONG 28N42W 31N52W CONNECTING THE 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N55W. THIS FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BUT THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. $$ WALLACE