000 AXNT20 KNHC 281724 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON JAN 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC ...THE ITCZ... FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 5N16W 3N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND NOW THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE COVERS EASTERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND OTHER U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES AND THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 80W AND 106W. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SOME LOW CLOUDS HUG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS GULF COAST DURING THE 36 HOURS OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 32N70W TO 27N71W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N75W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THAT NOW IS IN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE CLOUD LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS FOUND EASILY ON SATELLITE IMAGES. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND ALONG THE FRONT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN ONE CLOUD LINE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N62W 16N65W 12N67W....WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N72W 13N75W 10N78W...WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N77W 14N79W 12N81W 12N84W APPROACHING NICARAGUA...AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL-TO-EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N37W TO 29N40W TO 29N44W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N44W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N56W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N56W TO 24N60W 22N65W TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN AND/OR IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE APPROACHING ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N58W 30N56W 33N56W. PRECIPITATION ALSO IS POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N59W 23N64W 20N68W... AND FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 31N30W TO 23N31W HAS BEEN WEAKENING STEADILY DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N22W TO 27N22W REACHING 21N23W $$ MT