000 AXNT20 KNHC 280554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0615 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N25W 2N35W EQ41W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-80 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 20W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IS BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF WITH NLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A 1028 MB SFC HIGH IS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE GULF. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED DOWN TO CENTRAL CUBA AND EXTENDS WWD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POOLED AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE AND WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS TUE MORNING. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE TODAY...AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST TUE NIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE AREA. A RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND FLORIDA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MAIN FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS A COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AS NOTED ON SATELLITE PHOTOS. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE AND WILL BE EXTENDED FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS. THE SAME FRONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE TAIL END OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO INDUCE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS MODERATE TRADEWINDS. POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA MORE CONCENTRATED IN A BAND EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO ISLA MARGARITA OFFSHORE VENEZUELA. THIS BAND MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO AFFECTING FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO NICARAGUA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION AND A MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ELSEWHERE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N65W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. MORE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT. A 1014 MB SFC LOW IS NEAR 27N57W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PARTICULARLY WEST OF CENTER. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 27N47W. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES NE TO BEYOND 32N39W. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND MOVE TOWARD PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLC AND LIES ALONG 29W/30W FROM 24N TO 34N. ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE REGION. A DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE WHILE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE E ATLC WITH A CUT-OFF LOW NW OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N24W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY/MADEIRA ISLANDS. FURTHER SOUTH...A SWATH OF STRONG WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN TO W AFRICA CROSSING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ GR