000 AXNT20 KNHC 271805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...THE ITCZ... 5N8W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W...TO 1S40W INTO BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...AND FROM 6N TO THE BRAZIL COAST BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN AMPLIFIED IN MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT IS JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND BEYOND. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN U.S.A. AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N73W TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N...JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N94W TO MEXICO NEAR 18N97W...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO 22N101W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS AND HAS BEEN BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEASTERN...AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REST OF THE AREA WEST OF 90W IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW REGIME. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IN THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF 64W...FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W...AND FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W IN AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N42W TO 26N50W TO 25N53W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N53W TO A FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 26N60W...CONTINUING AS STATIONARY FROM 26N60W TO THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWS UP CLEARLY IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA AND 30W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 34N28W 30N30W 22N32W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. THE 34N28W 22N32W SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. $$ MT