000 AXNT20 KNHC 271132 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N25W EQ34W 1S40W 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 32W-35W AND NEAR 4N26W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THE DAY IS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. AS OF O9Z...A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TAMPA AREA WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW SW TO 22N94W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CONTINUES INTO S-CENTRAL MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THEN CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC. THE LOW WILL OPEN UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER FLORIDA AS NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR. A WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND EXTENDS FROM THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 24N84W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS. THICK LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. A LOW-LEVEL NLY FLOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL FAVOR TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED RAINFALL ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NWD ACROSS MEXICO GIVING THE GULF A NWLY WIND FLOW. WV IMAGERY REVEALS CONSIDERABLE UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 23. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD N OF 30N SUPPORTS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN BY THE COMPUTER MODELS OVER THE W ATLC TO THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA ON MONDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS PRETTY QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING BENEATH A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION AND A MODEST MID TO UPPER RIDGE ELSEWHERE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ENTIRE REGION THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA ESPECIALLY THE E CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR CLOUDINESS IS SEEN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC MOVING WWD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO AFFECTING WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT. THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GENERATING SOME CLOUDS WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER E CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS USUAL JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. LOOKING AHEAD...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO PROMISES TO ARRIVE TO HISPANIOLA ON MONDAY REACHING PUERTO RICO LATE MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS WAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST ALONG 31N75W 28N80W TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N44W...THEN CONTINUES SE TO THE SE BAHAMAS/E CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PARTICULARLY N OF 25N. A 1023 MB HIGH IS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 33N57W...AND WILL MOVE MAINLY EWD ACROSS THE OCEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC REMAINS UNCHANGED. A LARGE HIGHLY ELONGATED MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REGION ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA...AND A SECOND UPPER CYCLONE SITUATED NEAR 27N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM NE OF CENTER. A 1016 MB SFC LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE. A SFC TROUGH IS ATTACHED TO THE LOW AND RUNS FROM 32N29W TO 22N31W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS E OF 25W FROM 20N-32N. THIS ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE CANARY/MADEIRA ISLANDS. FURTHER SOUTH...WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA. $$ GR