000 AXNT20 KNHC 270542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA TO NE BRAZIL AND IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W EQ40W 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 32W-34W AND NEAR EQ40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. AS OF O3Z...A 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO 22N92W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CONTINUES INTO S-CENTRAL MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL OPEN UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND NOON SUNDAY. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF NORTH OF THE FRONTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90NM OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER FLORIDA AS NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOSTLY LIGHT SLY SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NWD ACROSS MEXICO GIVING THE GULF A NWLY WIND FLOW. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD N OF 30N SUPPORTS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE. CONSIDERABLE UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF 24N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES SOUTH MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT BENEATH A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION AND A MODEST MID TO UPPER RIDGE ELSEWHERE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ENTIRE REGION THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA ESPECIALLY THE E CARIBBEAN. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT. THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER E CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS USUAL JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. LOOKING AHEAD...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO PROMISES TO ARRIVE TO HISPANIOLA ON MONDAY REACHING PUERTO RICO LATE MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N45W THEN CONTINUES SE TO THE SE BAHAMAS/E CUBA. A WIDE BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 33N59W. THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC REMAINS UNCHANGED. A LARGE HIGHLY ELONGATED MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REGION ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA...AND A SECOND UPPER CYCLONE SITUATED NEAR 28N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS SRN UPPER LOW WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER FEATURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLC AND NOW EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB SFC LOW NEAR 28N29W TO 22N32W. LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEEN ADVECTED FROM N SOUTH AMERICA ALL THE WAY NE TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 17W-25W. FURTHER SOUTH...WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA. $$ GR