000 AXNT20 KNHC 261132 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W EQUATOR AT 43W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 24W-29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 30W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1017 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N92W SW TO 23N95W. AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 29N85W. THIS WEAK LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF WILL MOVE EWD REACHING NORTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRIP THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT NLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 7 FT BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUN...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TSTMS COVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE N GULF STATES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO GEORGIA AND N FLORIDA AS NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA. DENSE MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF WATERS N AND W OF THE FRONT MOSTLY W OF 90W. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT FINALLY GET A GOOD PUSH SWD AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES OVER U.S. AND DIGS SE DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT ALSO PROMISES TO REACH HISPANIOLA ON MONDAY AND PUERTO RICO LATE MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING BENEATH A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE NW PORTION AND A MODEST MID TO UPPER RIDGE ELSEWHERE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ENTIRE REGION THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE BASIN...MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS AND OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT. THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT WAS AFFECTING CUBA HAS DISSIPATED...HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND UNDER A NELY WIND FLOW. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS USUAL JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ATLANTIC... LARGE MID TO UPPER TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N52W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO THE EXTREME EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 130 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND A NARROW AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG 45W IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A WIDE BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS DEFINES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY E OF THE SE BAHAMAS. ABUNDANT COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT COVERING MOST OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS. THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LARGE HIGHLY ELONGATED MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REGION ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW NEAR 40N22W EXTENDING TO A SMALLER UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 27N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS SRN UPPER LOW WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH... REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER FEATURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 28W/29W FROM 20N-30N. THE SFC TROUGH SHOWS UP NICELY ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 07Z. A JET STREAM BRANCH AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM N SOUTH AMERICA TO TO THE AFRICAN COAST. THIS JET PASSES THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ GR