000 AXNT20 KNHC 260557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W EQUATOR AT 44W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-29W...AND WITHIN 160 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 30W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE EAST GULF AND FLORIDA ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER THE E CONUS WHICH IS USHERING A COOL AIR MASS. AS OF 03Z...THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO STATIONARY AND THEN WARM FROM WESTERN CUBA TO A 1020 MB LOW SITUATED OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N94W. THIS LOW SHOWS UP NICELY IN THE NEARBY BUOY/SHIP DATA. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD FROM THE LOW TO 23N95W. AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TSTMS COVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE N GULF STATES FROM LOUISIANA TO GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA. DENSE MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF WATERS N AND W OF THE FRONT MOSTLY W OF 90W. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT FINALLY GET A GOOD PUSH SWD AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS AMPLIFIES AND DIGS SE DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT BENEATH A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE NW PORTION AND A MODEST MID TO UPPER RIDGE ELSEWHERE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ENTIRE REGION THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE BASIN...MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLC CROSSES EASTERN CUBA THE CONTINUES W AND NW ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CUBA AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE TODAY. TRADE WINDS ARE QUITE BRISK 20-25 KT...EXCEPT TO 30 KT JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 00Z CONFIRMED THESE WINDS. ATLANTIC... LARGE MID TO UPPER TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N56W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO THE N SHORE OF EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND A NARROW AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG 45W IS ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS DEFINES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF 25N TO EASTERN CUBA. ABUNDANT COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILTERING SWD BEHIND THE FRONT COVERING MOST OF THE W ATLC AND THE BAHAMAS. THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LARGE HIGHLY ELONGATED MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REGION ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW NEAR 40N20W EXTENDING TO A SMALLER UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 27N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS SRN UPPER LOW WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...ANALYZED ALONG 26W/27W FROM 20N-30N. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. STRONG W TO SW UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE AFRICAN COAST. $$ GR/JC