000 AXNT20 KNHC 252349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N17W 3N30W 2N44W EQUATOR50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE E GULF AND FLORIDA ARE EXPERIENCING A COOLER DAY THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DUE TO THE COLD PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING...NOW LOCATED OVER THE N SHORE OF CUBA. THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO STATIONARY AND THEN WARM FROM 23N84W TO A 1019 MB LOW SITUATED OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N95W. THIS LOW SHOWS UP NICELY IN THE NEARBY BUOY/SHIP DATA AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS. A STATIONARY OR VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD FROM THE LOW TO 20N96W AND THEN NWD ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TSTMS COVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA. DENSE MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF WATERS N AND W OF THE FRONT MOSTLY W OF 90W. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT FINALLY GET A GOOD PUSH SWD AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS AMPLIFIES AND DIGS SE DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS QUIET THIS EVENING BENEATH A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE NW PORTION AND A MODEST MID TO UPPER RIDGE ELSEWHERE. SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD REGION WIDE AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES. THIS DRY SINKING ENVIRONMENT IS CAPPING THE TYPICAL STREAMS OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS DRIVEN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ACROSS THE CARIB SEA BY THE TRADES. BRIEF QUICK MOVING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY EMBEDDED IN SOME OF THE PATCHES ESPECIALLY E OF 72W...CLOSER TO THE ATLC FETCH...AND S OF 16N W OF 79W WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT NEAR THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST. TRADE WINDS ARE QUITE BRISK 20-25 KT...EXCEPT TO 30 KT NEAR THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC... LARGE MID TO UPPER TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N60W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE N SHORE OF CUBA. LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH...LIKELY TO BE ADDED TO THE 00Z ANALYSIS...IN THE VICINITY OF 27N63W TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THIS PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND A NARROW AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE E...IS GENERATING A FAST MOVING SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF A LINE ALONG 32N57W 23N70W AS NOTED IN LIGHTNING DATA. A LARGE BLANKET OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILTERING SWD BEHIND THE FRONT INDICATIVE OF THE COOL STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LARGE HIGHLY ELONGATED MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REGION ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW NEAR 40N20W EXTENDING TO A SMALLER UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 27N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS SRN UPPER LOW WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER ANALYZED ALONG 26W/27W FROM 16N-28N. BESIDES FOR A WIND SHIFT NEAR THE SFC TROUGH THERE IS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED. $$ CANGIALOSI