000
AXNT20 KNHC 250550
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N19W 2N33W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 28W-33W. SMALL CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR 
E OF 21W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO 
TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND INTO THE W GULF W OF 88W. A 
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS DUG S OVER THE E GULF COVERING THE SE US 
AND INTO THE W ATLC N OF 24N E OF 88W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA 
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE W TO A WEAK 1018 MB NEAR 25N94W THEN S 
INTO MEXICO NEAR JUST N OF VERACRUZ THEN NW ALONG THE E SLOPE OF 
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N AND W 
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS 
RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER SE INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY THEN WEAKEN WHILE THE LOW WILL TRACK N TO 
NE REMAINING THE THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC AGAIN 
REIGNS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE 
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL 
SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN THE LESSER 
ANTILLES AND 67W. 

ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE SE US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO 
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 70W WITH ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 32N74W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A PRE-FRONTAL 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA ACROSS THE 
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W ALONG 29N71W TO BEYOND 32N69W GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE 
FROM 25N73W TO BEYOND 32N64W. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES 
THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W 
OF 45W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 
32N29W TO A BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR 28N34W CONTINUING TO 23N44W 
WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM OF THE UPPER 
LOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 25W FROM 21N-29N. BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING 
THROUGH 32N43W TO 21N65W BUT WITH DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR IN 
PLACE ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE PRESENT. 

$$
WALLACE