000
AXNT20 KNHC 241140
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N2W 5N16W 3N30W 1N39W CROSSING 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA 
BETWEEN 48W-50W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 
6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W-31W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE 
CARIBBEAN GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER 
FLOW AND BRINGING IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE 
GULF. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE REGION OVER THE E US AND 
INTO THE NW ATLC EXTENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC 
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WEAKENING FURTHER 
ALONG 26N90W TO A 1015 MB LOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N96W 
THEN S INTO MEXICO NEAR 25N98W NW ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE 
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 25N ACROSS 
THE N GULF WITH A SMALL AREA THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS 
OF 27N87W. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIP FURTHER 
SOUTH WHILE THE WEAK LOW REMAINS IN THE W GULF AND DISSIPATES 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE GULF COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN 
N OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO HONDURAS ANCHORED JUST S OF CUBA NEAR 
21N80W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE W TROPICAL 
ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY STABLE AIR AND 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/ 
STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. 

ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US AND NW ATLC N OF THE 
REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC 
NEAR 32N74W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N W OF 
70W. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 
40W. A WEAK BROAD ILL-DEFINED UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE E ATLC N 
OF 25N E OF 40W WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST S OF THE AZORES AND A 
SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 31N34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 30N-33N 
BETWEEN 31W-37W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 33W FROM 
16N-21N WITH A STRONGER MORE WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 15N19W TO 25N22W. BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS 
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W TO 23N65W. 

$$
WALLACE