000
AXNT20 KNHC 240527
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N2W 7N13W 3N26W 1N39W CROSSING 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 26W-28W AND 
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA S OF 2N W OF 48W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE 
CARIBBEAN GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER 
FLOW AND BRINGING IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE 
GULF. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE REGION OVER THE E US AND 
INTO THE NW ATLC EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC THEN 
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE 
OKEECHOBEE ALONG 26N85W 28N93W TO A 1014 MB LOW OFF THE TEXAS 
COAST NEAR 27N96W THEN S INTO MEXICO NEAR 25N98W NW ALONG THE E 
SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
ACROSS THE N GULF. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIP 
FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE WEAK LOW REMAINS IN THE W GULF OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE GULF COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN 
N OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO HONDURAS ANCHORED JUST S OF CUBA NEAR 
21N80W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE W TROPICAL 
ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY STABLE AIR AND 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/ 
STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. 

ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US AND NW ATLC N OF THE 
REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 
32N74W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N 
OF 26N W OF 73W. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
ATLC W OF 40W. A WEAK BROAD ILL-DEFINED UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE 
E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 31N23W WITH A RAPIDLY WEAKENING STATIONARY 
BOUNDARY ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N33W ALONG 27N46W TO 31N57W. 
A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE 
LOW...EXTENDS FROM 22N31W TO 16N33W WITH A STRONGER MORE WELL 
DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 
14N19W NNW TO 24N23W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E AND 
CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W BRIDGING THE 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N67W. 

$$
WALLACE