000 AXNT20 KNHC 232340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED JAN 23 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N9W 4N6W 5N18W 4N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 4N W OF 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE MID-GULF NEAR 28N88W THEN STATIONARY THROUGH THE N MEXICAN COAST...JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 27N96W JUST E OF BUOY 42020 WHICH IS REPORTING AN INCREASE IN NLY WINDS AND A 2-3 MB LOWER PRES THAN THE SURROUNDINGS. DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND TO THE N OF THE FRONT. A LINGERING SFC TROUGH S OF THE FRONT ALONG 85W/86W HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED AND IS PRODUCING LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE FRONT HAS VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AT THE MOMENT DUE TO WIDESPREAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCATED ABOVE THE ENTIRE REGION AND MOST OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS UPPER FLOW HAS ADVECTED HIGH LEVEL MOIST PACIFIC AIR ACROSS THE ZONE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT REMAINING IN PLACE OR EVEN LIFTING N THROUGH TOMORROW UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ENERGIZING THE BOUNDARY DRIVING IT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. A BRIEF COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... ALL QUIET IN THE CARIB THIS EVENING BENEATH A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE NW PORTION AND A MODEST MID TO UPPER RIDGE ELSEWHERE. SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD REGION WIDE AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES. THIS DRY SINKING ENVIRONMENT IS CAPPING THE TYPICAL STREAMS OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS DRIVEN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ACROSS THE CARIB SEA BY THE TRADES. BRIEF QUICK MOVING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY EMBEDDED IN SOME OF THE PATCHES ESPECIALLY S OF 17N E OF 72W...CLOSER TO THE ATLC FETCH...AND S OF 17N W OF 80W WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS CONFLUENT NEAR THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST. TRADE WINDS ARE QUITE BRISK 20-25 KT...EXCEPT TO 30 KT NEAR THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC... WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N74W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS PRODUCING MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 67W. A GRADUALLY WEAKENING STALLED BOUNDARY LIES FARTHER E ALONG 32N32W 28N41W 29N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOST ORGANIZED N OF THE FRONT FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 54W-58W TRIGGERED BY A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL PORTION OF THE ATLC WATERS W OF 40W IS VERY QUIET THIS EVENING DOMINATED BY A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT. IN THE E ATLC...UPPER CUT OFF IS STILL SPINNING ALBEIT WEAKER NEAR 32N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE N OF 28N BETWEEN 15W-22W...WHICH INCLUDES THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SFC CENTER CONTINUES ITS SWD MOTION ANALYZED NEAR 20N34W 1012 MB AT 18Z...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DRAWN AS OPEN TROUGH AT 00Z BASED ON THE CLOUD STRUCTURE. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH LIES FARTHER E FROM 15N18W TO 27N25W. A 1920 Z QSCAT PASS SHOWED THE ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT VERY NICELY...HOWEVER...LITTLE OTHER WEATHER EFFECTS ARE RELATED. $$ CANGIALOSI