000
AXNT20 KNHC 231733
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N6W 5N17W 4N34W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 
40W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 
11W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO 
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ALONG 30N81W 28N92W 26N97W.  OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 
FRONT.  RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STEADY RAIN OVER S LOUISIANA S OF 
32N.  FURTHER S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF ALONG 
27N88W 23N82W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
TROUGH.  MORE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO 
FOUND IN THE SW GULF S OF 24N AND W OF 90W.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...WLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT 
MOISTURE.   EXPECT THE COLD FRONT PUSH SLOWLY S AND EXTEND FROM 
S FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED 
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 70W MOVING W.  THESE CLOUDS WERE 
FORMED IN THE COLD AIRMASS OF A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE N 
ATLANTIC.  FURTHER W...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A 
SMALL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 60W.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  
EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DOT THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE TRADEWINDS. 

ATLANTIC...
A 1037 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N41W.  A 
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N34W 
29N40W 27N50W 28N59W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1012 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 21N34W.  A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 26N32W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 17N34W.  ANOTHER 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 25N25W 17N19W. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N63W.  
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 55W-65W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N25W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 
23N BETWEEN 18W-30W.  WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM THE 
LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA S OF 20N. 

$$
FORMOSA