000 AXNT20 KNHC 231125 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 23 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N6W 5N17W 4N34W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 40W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 11W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE/W YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N92W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS BRINGING IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF. GA COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TO OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF THROUGH VERMILION BAY INTO TEXAS BETWEEN BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI BECOMING STATIONARY NW OVER W TEXAS. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR PENSACOLA THROUGH A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 26N88W TO N OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 23N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 93W-95W AND OVER THE FAR E GULF FROM 27N29N E OF 84W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH A GRADUALLY DIP S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION USHERING IN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. ATLANTIC... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N35W SW TO 26N57W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY TO NEAR 27N75W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N66W S TO 26N68W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO 32N BETWEEN 63W-70W. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC BRIDGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-75W. NEAR ZONAL UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE ATLC TO 35W. A WEAK ILL-DEFINED UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 30N25W WITH A RAPIDLY WEAKENING 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 22N34W THAT IS BEGINNING TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 15N21W N ALONG 20N24W TO 25N26W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS S OF THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 100 KT AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG A LINE FROM 10N42W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL MAURITANIA IN W AFRICA. $$ WALLACE