000
AXNT20 KNHC 221812
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N1W 3N20W EQ40W 2S50W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN THE PRIME 
MERIDIAN AND 7W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST 
OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 45W-49W.  

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W FROM 19N-26N.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 
84W-88W.  BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 
90W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NE 
MEXICO.  A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING S. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING NWLY FLOW OVER THE 
ENTIRE GULF. IN ADDITION...A MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW IS PRODUCING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.  
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS TO BE OVER THE N GULF FROM N 
FLORIDA TO S TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS 
COAST.  ALSO EXPECT ELY SURFACE FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.      

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 70W MOVING W.  THESE CLOUDS WERE FORMED IN 
THE COLD AIRMASS OF A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE N ATLANTIC.  
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A LITTLE LOWER THAN NORMAL.  
FURTHER W...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW 
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DOT THE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE TRADEWINDS.   

ATLANTIC...

A 1037 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N66W.  A COLD FRONT 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N44W 26N60W.  A STATIONARY 
FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA ALONG 26N70W 22N80W.  
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE FRONTS.  A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N33W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N32W TO 
THE LOW CENTER TO 21N30W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS FROM 24N-32N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N30W.  CYCLONIC 
FLOW IS N OF 20N AND E OF 40W.  WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS 
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA S OF 20N.    

$$
FORMOSA