000 AXNT20 KNHC 221133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N6W 4N14W 2N31W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 16W-23W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 8W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS GENERATING LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 42W TO THE INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE E US INTO THE NW ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH E OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF NORTH WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SW. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS FROM 90 TO 130 KT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OVER LOUISIANA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEAKENING IN THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 27N88W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 87W-90W WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WHICH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE N GULF EARLY WED. THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE N/CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 80W-87W. RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 22N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WITH DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 16N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA JUST N OF BELIZE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N66W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US INTO THE NW/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N46W WSW TO 27N65W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W INTO THE THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG THE N CUBAN COAST. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA W OF THE FRONT TO THE US E COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE VIRGINA COAST COVERS THE E US AND THE ATLC W OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS BRIDGES THE FRONT N OF 20N W OF 40W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N47W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 23N55W COVERING THE AREA W OF 37W. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE E ATLC N OF 18N FROM 18W-37W WITH AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR 30N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 14N19W N TO 23N20W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 25N E OF 20W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS S OF THE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG A LINE FROM 11N44W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN NE TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR THE S PORTION OF WESTERN SAHARA. $$ WALLACE