000 AXNT20 KNHC 211126 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 21 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 3N13W 3N31W 2N42W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-25W. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS GENERATING LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 25W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NW ATLC AND GIVES THE ENTIRE GULF WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS FROM 90 TO 110 KTS COVERS THE GULF N OF 23N. A WEAK RETURN FLOW SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 22N94W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NE US DOMINATES THE GULF. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE N GULF TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM EXTREME S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TO W CUBA NEAR HAVANA. BROKEN TO MOSTLY OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 87W. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WITH DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA E OF SANTA CLARA TO 21N82W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE N COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR ROATAN ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTING TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO TO THE E COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E US INTO THE NW ATLC EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 21N61W ALONG 26N70W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA E OF SANTA CLARA. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO THE US E COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF THE COLD FRONT. A BROAD UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 30N55W COVERING THE AREA W OF 40W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC N OF 18N FROM 23W-40W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N21W EXTENDING S ALONG 20N25W TO 13N35W THEN W TO 12N43W WHERE IT BECOMES A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 15N56W OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO TO THE E COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH W OF 59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. A JETSTREAM WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT IS ALONG THE W PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BETWEEN THESE FRONTS WITH A 1029 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N47W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICS S OF THE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. A SECOND JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE ALONG A LINE FROM 13N40W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ WALLACE