000 AXNT20 KNHC 210538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 21 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N14W 3N26W EQ34W 1N42W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 467W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 11W-19W AND BETWEEN 22W-31W. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS GENERATING LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 31W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT MOVED INTO THE NW ATLC EARLIER TODAY IS GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF W TO SW UPPER FLOW. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS FROM 90 TO 110 KTS COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE AREA OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE SE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOMINATES THE GULF WHILE THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE N GULF TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF A LINE FROM JUST S OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROKEN TO MOSTLY OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF S OF 28N W OF 87W. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WITH DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA TO THE THE N COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR ROATAN ISLAND WHERE IT CONTINUES S INLAND OVER HONDURAS AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY INLAND OVER CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTING THE WEAKEN LATER TODAY. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N59W TO 19N67W. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E US INTO THE NW ATLC EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC JUST E OF BERMUDA ALONG 27N72W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO MOSTLY OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS S OF A LINE FROM ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N78W. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF THE COLD FRONT. A BROAD UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 28N58W COVERING THE AREA W OF 45W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC N OF 18N FROM 28W-45W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N21W EXTENDING S ALONG 24N23W TO 17N31W WHERE IT CONTINUES W TO 15N44W AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 17N56W OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS TO E PUERTO RICO GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N59W TO 19N67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. A JETSTREAM WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT IS ALONG THE W PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BETWEEN THESE FRONTS WITH A 1029 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N47W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICS S OF THE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. A SECOND JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 115 KT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE ALONG A LINE FROM 15N37W TO INLAND OVER WESTERN SAHARA IN AFRICA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 10N18W TO 19N17W. $$ WALLACE