000
AXNT20 KNHC 201829
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 4N30W EQ50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-4N 
BETWEEN 43W-51W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO W CUBA 
ALONG 24N80W 23N81W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH PATCHES OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF FOR THE NEXT SIX 
HOURS...N OF 21N E OF 92W WITH N TO NE WINDS 25-35 KT SEAS 9-14 
FT. THE W GULF HAS 15-20 KT NE TO E WINDS.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.  
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER 
THE S GULF S OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO.  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF THIS LINE.  EXPECT...850 MB 
OVERRUNNING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA FOR THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS OF 
TEXAS AND NE MEXICO.        

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  PATCHES OF 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM W CUBA TO W HONDURAS ALONG 23N81W 20N85W 16N87W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A 
RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W.  VERY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL 
AND W CUBA WHERE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS NOTED.  EXPECT THE 
FRONT TO GO STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE 
CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.   

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N72W 
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD 
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH PATCHES OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
NEAR 31N47W.  A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N28W.  
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 30N25W 24N26W 20N30W 
17N40W DISSIPATING TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 30W.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W 
OF 50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 20W-50W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
30N30W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 
50W-70W.  A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC 
FROM 8N40W TO 20N16W OVER W AFRICA.  

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FORMOSA