000 AXNT20 KNHC 200615 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC ...THE ITCZ... FROM 7N11W TO 4N24W 4N35W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 50W...AND CONTINUING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W...FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 33W AND 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO MEXICO EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE PASS AREA IS OPEN...WITHOUT A FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS TO 20N98W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. A GALE WARNING EXISTS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A 1008 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN FLORIDA ARE IN THE 30S FAHRENHEIT AND IN THE LOW 70S FAHRENHEIT IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM NORTHERN BELIZE TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO FLORIDA SOUTH OF 29N...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 31N77W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 32N WEST OF 55W...AND INCLUDING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS SUPPOSED TO BE ABOUT 90 NM NORTH OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL. SUCH A CENTER IS NOT EASY TO SEE WITH THE NAKED EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS LOOSELY RELATED TO LARGE SCALE ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 700 NM EAST OF BERMUDA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REACHES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ISOBARS ON THE SURFACE MAP DO NOT APPEAR TO SHOW A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE FIELD IS NOT ABLE TO GENERATE COMPARATIVELY FASTER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN EXAMPLE OF FAST WINDS FROM WHAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUCH A STRONG GRADIENT ACCORDING TO THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS IS FROM 10N TO 19N EAST OF 82W BETWEEN 70W AND 80W EASTERLY WINDS FROM 20 KT TO 30 KT AND SEAS FROM 9 TO 13 FT CURRENTLY AND IN THE MIAHSFAT2 FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAHSFAT2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 11N65W 14N75W 14N80W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W IN THE WATERS EAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO 30N80W TO A 1008 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N83W ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO FLORIDA SOUTH OF 29N...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 31N77W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS FRONT. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB PRESSURE CENTER/DEVELOPING GALE LOW CENTER NEAR 34N28W TO 26N30W AND 22N35W. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES FROM 22N35W TO 20N50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THIS COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT 700 NM EAST OF BERMUDA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE PRODUCING 20 KT TO 30 KT WIND SPEEDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAHSFAT2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR SPECIFIC FORECAST INFORMATION REGARDING WIND AND SEAS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. $$ MT