000 AXNT20 KNHC 192356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N21W 6N26W 4N33W 2N42W CROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 6N16W TO 4N21W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 42W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 40W-51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF W OF 83W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AT 19/2100 UTC EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N84W ALONG 22N90W OVER S MEXICO TO NEAR 17N93W. A SHORT STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS W OF THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS NEAR 17N96W TO 20N97W GIVING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE. GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...SEE MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CEDAR KEY INTO THE W ATLC NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND LOUISIANA W OF ATCHAFALAYA BAY WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. CLEARING SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE E AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD EXITING THE GULF SUN MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS. THIS WILL CHANGE SHORTLY AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON MON. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 26N67W COVERING THE AREA W OF 50W. THE WARM FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC AT 19/2100 UTC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE NE OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N77W. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF A LINE FROM DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA NE TO BEYOND 32N78W. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT AND EXIT THE GULF ON SUN. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 40W-78W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 31N53W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 28W-50W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N29W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N33W TO 21N41W WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY AND WEAKENS TO 20N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 22N-26N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS S OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 16N46W TO A PEAK NEAR 24N20W INLAND OVER WESTERN SAHARA IN AFRICA. OTHER THAN SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...THE E ATLC REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. $$ WALLACE