000
AXNT20 KNHC 191737
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 7N12W 4N20W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W...STAYING 
JUST S OF THE EQUATOR TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 
14W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
5N-10N BETWEEN 23W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL U.S. SWD INTO THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM FROM 
TAMPA BAY TO A 1007 MB GALE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 27N91W. COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER SWD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
AT THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 19N94W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY 
AND CURVES NWD ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS TO 23N100W 
27N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS 
FROM 26N N OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...ALSO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED W OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG AND JUST E 
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE
LOW CLOUDS MOVING RAPIDLY WWD ALONG THE BRISK TRADE WINDS.
THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE 
SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN
PANAMA.

ATLANTIC
WESTERN ATLC STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 32N74W TO 30N77W THEN BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO CENTRAL 
FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLC W OF 50W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS S OF 
30N W OF 55W. E OF THE RIDGE A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS 
FROM 32N35W 25N40W TO 17N50W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM 32N30W 25N35W 22N42W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY TO 
25N58W. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON E OF FRONT N OF 
25N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF FRONT 
S OF 25N. NW OF THE FRONT SCATTERED/BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH. 
AN 85-95 KT SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM 15N44W 23N20W INTO 
AFRICA. THE JET IS MARKED BY A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS 
S OF ITS
AXIS.

$$
DGS