000 AXNT20 KNHC 190604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC ...THE ITCZ... FROM 10N14W TO 4N20W TO 1N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W...STAYING JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND CONTINUING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W...FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W... FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 31W AND 38W...AND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 42W AND 43W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF 10N ELSEWHERE WEST OF 40W... AND FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE AREA OF GUYANA/SURINAME/ FRENCH GUIANA ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITHIN 350 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N53W 12N38W BEYOND 19N19W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHEASTERN/NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LACKS STRONG SUPPORT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N75W TO FLORIDA ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL GULF...TO A 1007 MB DEVELOPING GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE GALE CENTER TO 20N96W...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 20N98W 25N102W AND 28N108W IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 96W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTHWEST OF 29N83W 23N90W 19N91W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 32N WEST OF 55W...AND INCLUDING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS SUPPOSED TO BE ABOUT 90 NM NORTH OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL. SUCH A CENTER IS NOT EASY TO SEE WITH THE NAKED EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS LOOSELY RELATED TO LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. NO ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ANYWHERE NEAR THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ONE CENTER IS ABOUT 150 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REACHES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ISOBARS ON THE SURFACE MAP DO NOT APPEAR TO SHOW A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE FIELD IS NOT ABLE TO GENERATE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN EXAMPLE OF FAST WINDS FROM WHAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUCH A STRONG GRADIENT ACCORDING TO THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS IS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS FROM 20 KT TO 30 KT AND SEAS FROM 8 TO 13 FT CURRENTLY AND IN THE MIAHSFAT2 FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAHSFAT2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 12N60W 14N70W 15N80W 15N84W IN SURFACE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N70W TO 30N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N75W TO FLORIDA ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W...AND FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 64W AND 71W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS FRONT. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS NEAR 32N32W TO 24N40W TO 20N50W AND 20N59W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES THROUGH 33N41W TO 29N36W TO 23N36W TO 17N46W SUPPORTS THIS COLD FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N60W 21N50W 24N40W BEYOND 32N32W. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT 360 NM EAST OF BERMUDA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE PRODUCING 20 KT TO 30 KT WIND SPEEDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... AND IN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAHSFAT2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR SPECIFIC FORECAST INFORMATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N21W TO 24N23W TO 20N27W. THE HIGH CLOUDS IN A BAND FROM THE AREA OF GUYANA/SURINAME/FRENCH GUIANA PASSING ON TOP OF THE ITCZ TOWARD AFRICA ARE BLOCKING THE VIEW ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE REST OF THE POSSIBLE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 16N50W 23N30W BEYOND 32N20W. $$ MT