000 AXNT20 KNHC 171156 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 17 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...THE ITCZ... FROM 7N12W 4N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 38W...TO 2S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W...FROM 2S TO 1N BETWEEN 35W AND 44W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/BAJA CALIFORNIA/MEXICO/THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE LOST MUCH OF ITS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THINGS SEEM TO BE A BIT DISJOINTED AT THE MOMENT. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO MEXICO NEAR 19N99W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THEN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BEYOND 26N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N86W 28N83W. THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST STILL INDICATES 20 KT TO 25 KT WINDS AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 16N INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LOW-TO-MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 240 NM NORTH OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS SENDS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALSO...JUST FROM A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE AREA. THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST INDICATES EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 78W FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT AND SEAS FROM 8 FT TO 10 FT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW EAST OF 70W...FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W...AND NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W GOING NORTHWESTWARD IN THE DIRECTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W 26N60W TO 24N70W...A WARM FRONT 24N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALONG THE 32N49W 26N78W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N30W TO A 21N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A POSSIBLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N47W TO 12N54W. $$ MT