000
AXNT20 KNHC 162358
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W EQ30W EQ40W 2S50W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 32W-37W.  
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER BRAZIL FROM 2S-EQ BETWEEN 
46W-50W.     

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1004 MB GALE LOW IS JUST S OF THE MOUTH OF 
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR 29N90W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM 
THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W.  A STATIONARY 
FRONT CONTINUES TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS 
ALONG 20N96W 21N99W.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E 
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 84W-90W.  GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AND ARE FORECAST TO 
LAST FOR ONLY THE NEXT SIX HOURS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE 
IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 80W.  THUS... 
SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE 
MOISTURE.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO FILL TO 1012 MB AND MOVE 
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N79W IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO 
EXPECT N AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TO GET SOME BADLY NEEDED RAIN FROM 
THIS SYSTEM.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 81W FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS.  ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 70W 
MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE 
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 80W.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  
EXPECT... ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW TO E OF 
THE BAHAMAS ALONG 32N52W 25N70W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES 
TO N OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N79W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH 
EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT.  A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 46W FROM 10N-20N.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A 1030 MB HIGH 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N21W PRODUCING ELY SURFACE FLOW 
FROM W AFRICA TO 40W BETWEEN 20W-30W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
NWLY FLOW IS N OF 20N AND W OF 60W DUE TO A BROAD RIDGE.  AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC N OF 10N 
BETWEEN 20W-60W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N38W.  
IN THE TROPICS...A JET STREAM...WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS 
SE OF THE E ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 17N30W TO 
BEYOND 22N17W OVER W AFRICA. 

$$
FORMOSA