000 AXNT20 KNHC 160612 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 16 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 4N20W 1N30W 1N40W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 44W...TO 2S50W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W...AND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 39W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W..AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N EAST OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N92W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N92W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO MEXICO NEAR 18N97W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE COAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND ULTIMATELY TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. A NOT-YET-WELL-DEVELOPED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR 28N101W...AND A TROUGH ALONG 30N100W 28N101W 23N102W IN MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...AND IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 25.5N95W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 25N97W 26N90W 28N83W. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST STILL IS FOR THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW NEAR 22N96W TO MOVE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 16N INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 200 NM NORTH OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS SENDS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALSO...JUST FROM A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE AREA. THE SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW APPEARS TO BE RELAXED GIVEN THE COMPARATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N92W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WEST OF 9N80W 15N83W...AND WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF 15N83W 22N85W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N75W 15N67W BEYOND 16N80W IN EASTERLY SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT REACHES OF 31N58W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N58W TO 25N70W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD 60W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 30W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N33W TO 17N40W TO 13N46W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A TROUGH REACHES FROM 20N50W TO 17N54W. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO EXTENDS FROM 30N50W TO 21N51W TOWARD 17N54W. THAT WHOLE AREA SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W SHOWS WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 58W/60W FROM 14N TO 25N. SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW INDICATES A NOT-YET-ANALYZED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 45W/47W FROM 10N TO 20N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WITH A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 27N25W 11N40W. $$ MT